Notting Hill Carnival: a ticking time bomb?

Europe's largest street carnival endures with significant concerns for public safety writes Chris Hobbs

Last year, shortly before the Notting Hill Carnival, I wrote a lengthy article which, whilst extolling the virtues of this two- day event, expressed strong reservations about the safety of the crowds that attended. The article referred to the well- publicised crushing event in Ladbroke Grove the year before which was filmed from a first-floor window. It showed a densely packed swirling crowd and clearly visible were helpless police officers.

The article also referred to a Carnival crushing event in 2016 which resulted in the Police and Crime Committee concluding that the event had come close to a, ‘major catastrophic failure of public safety.’

Reference was also made to the crushing event at Brixton Academy where an attempt by the crowd to storm the venue resulted in two deaths. Just days ago, at a musical event in Newquay, Cornwall a ‘crowd collapse’ resulted in several revellers being taken to hospital; whilst the numbers of injured were small, the incident caused great consternation amongst those who attended.

There are, of course, lessons to be learnt from tragedies abroad; Seoul, Astroworld and the Hajj all resulted in mass casualties from crushing; 2,400 died as the result of crushing which occurred in Saudi Arabia during that annual Hajj pilgrimage in 2015.

There are those who will quote crime figures when discussing whether the Carnival should be halted or the venue changed. The major challenges in respect of crowd control can normally be seen on the Monday; last year there were 198 arrests including 46 for assaulting police and 43 for ‘points and blades,’ which were mainly knives. However, supporters of Carnival will point to the sheer number of revellers with well over a million attending on the Monday.

The positive side of Carnival

Having attended the last few Carnivals, there is much to be admired. The atmosphere is, overall, celebratory with the overwhelming majority simply there to have fun. As a now ageing member of London’s populace, I’ve always been treated with respect whilst enjoying the vibe. Despite the ‘hype’ to the contrary, relations between police and revellers are friendly; officers can frequently be seen tending to those who have over-imbibed on something or other or otherwise become unwell.  The days of joining in the dancing behind the various mobile discos and bands have gone but many in the police community would regard that as a positive.

Last year’s ordeal

Yet, there is a ‘but’ coming. Twelve months ago, shortly after I arrived at Carnival, I found myself in Westbourne Grove behind a float; Here an extract from my account last year:

“Matters didn’t improve; the crowd was packed together and there was little room to move in any direction. The DJ had clearly realised we were heading for a potential crushing crisis and commendably stopped the music giving instructions to the crowd in an attempt to ease the pressure. ‘This is (expletive) dangerous,’ I said to my new paramedic companion and he nodded in agreement.

The situation was made worse, when, to my left, groups of youths began pushing their way through the packed crowd. I remembered that this was the cause of the Halloween Seoul disaster just months ago when 150 people died. I recalled You Tube video’s which I had watched that had advised what action to take when faced with such a situation. Accordingly, I began to move diagonally through the crowd. I could see a side road or, as described in the video’s, an escape route, yet moving through the packed crowd was difficult.

As I neared my goal, I received assistance from a young, smiling guy. I’ll say more later but after I stretched out and managed a handshake, I walked a few more steps and, with a huge sigh of relief, joined a number of others in the side-road escape.’

There were police officers there and when I spoke to them, they said GT (police control) were aware but the situation had developed to such an extent that no action could be taken without making the situation worse. Of course, with the huge number of cameras across Carnival plus the observations of officers, actions can be taken, such as sealing off roads with police cordons, and they are. Policing Carnival is a hugely complex business and it is done well, but, as with the situation in Ladbroke Grove in 2022, not every situation can be managed.

Last year, My London reported two other potentially dangerous Carnival crushing incidents. Certainly, while I’ve confidence in the officers on duty and some stewards and security staff are clearly professional, I have zero confidence in the numerous youths standing around in stewards tabards looking bewildered.

Current concerns

Fortunately, the days of large- scale clashes between rival gangs or groups of youths rampaging through crowds ‘steaming,’ appear to have been ‘policed out’ but there is no room for complacency.

Recently concerns for the Carnival were expressed after the fatal gang-related shooting in Teletubbies Park in Ladbroke Grove where a pre-Carnival event for children was being held. The victim was just 15 years old and, according to gang linked social media, the territories of the rival gangs both lie within the Carnival footprint.

The thought of gunshots within a crowded area of Carnival, doesn’t bear thinking about and Met planners and event Commanders will be well aware of the potential catastrophe should that situation arise. They will also be taking steps to ensure that potential assassins won’t even begin to consider taking revenge within the Carnival footprint.

Nevertheless, even if violence isn’t a trigger for disaster, the potential is always there. Last years’ experience left me chastened; my personal experience of countless public order situations and being one of the authors of a crowd/ground safety plan for the Met post the Bradford fire and Heysel, counted for nothing in terms of making me feel more secure.

It won’t be the fact that congested airways prevent ‘live tweeting’ during Carnival that will result in my deciding to stay safely at home, it will be simply the fear of getting caught in a life- threatening crush.

I’ll conclude with the sentence I used to finish last year’s Notting Hill Carnival preview; it still applies; ‘the luck that has helped keep Carnival alive over many years will eventually run out.’

Chris Hobbs is a former Special Branch officer who follows public order events for Police Oracle.

Category: knife crimeOpsPublic Order