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Winter is here


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#1 Penbwlch

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 09:56 AM

This week we will see winter. Although precise details are difficult to forecast, it is certainly going to get very cold, particularly from mid week onwards.

As some of you already know, meteorology is a hobby of mine and I do daily predictions for my local area on my website. However, what I am seeing will concern the whole country. First, as a way of explaining the current weather conditions, here is my preamble to today's forecast:-

"The next two or three days are very difficult to forecast with any precision. What is happening is that there is a large area of warm moist air to our west and a large area of cold dry air to our east. These two areas are about to have a war and the result will be snow at the point where they meet. That is the easy bit. However, the difficult (virtually impossible) bit is forecasting precisely where this boundary will be. It forms a snaking, moving north south line. My forecast, below, is based on what the weather models are currently indicating. Yesterday morning they were indicating a lot of snow for us. Yesterday evening they had changed and were showing rain. Today they are back with snow. For those intending to travel today, there is a greater chance of snow if you go eastwards and a greater chance of rain if you go westwards. However, travel anywhere today could prove problematic."

That north/south line is over Western UK, excluding Devon and Cornwall but starting from about Swansea, northwards up through Snowdonia, up to Cumbria and then western Scotland. Later in the week, Devon, Cornwall and the east coast of the UK are likely to be included in the snow but by then today's battle will be largely over and we will have a better idea of where snow is likely to fall. Probably the only area likely to miss the snow is central southern England but they will probably get the lowest temperatures which could go as low as -15C for them. For those areas missing the snow at the end of the week, they may get some very sunny days. For those who still have snow on the ground at that time, it may well be worth making sure that your camera batteries are charged.

As to how long this will last, nobody knows but it looks hopeful that it will clear the following week.
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#2 IveToldYouOnce

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 10:04 AM

I like the cold..........much better than sweating your bits off.
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#3 Penbwlch

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 10:09 AM

View PostIveToldYouOnce, on 29 January 2012 - 10:04 AM, said:

I like the cold..........much better than sweating your bits off.

I don't mind the cold but last winter we had temperatures down to -12C (ish) and had problems. To start with our bore hole holding tank stopped working. The internal neoprene bladder had frozen and we needed a few hours of a fan heater to get water again. It depends on your circumstances but it can bring problems.
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#4 Maverick22

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 10:19 AM

It was -1.5c to - 2.7c here last night, from 2100 to 0715, but rose to +2.7c in just 30 minutes.  It's now gone back to -2.2c.  Thats plenty cold enough for me.
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#5 Penbwlch

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 10:20 AM

View PostMaverick22, on 29 January 2012 - 10:19 AM, said:

It was -1.5c to - 2.7c here last night, from 2100 to 0715, but rose to +2.7c in just 30 minutes.  It's now gone back to -2.2c.  Thats plenty cold enough for me.

No it's not. ;)
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#6 IveToldYouOnce

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 01:33 PM

I went for a run this morning.

My, my, my.  It was cold.
"It's going to be a two banana kind of day....."

#7 aerialrocket

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 01:40 PM

Me and two friends had to sleep rough in it with only a small blanket. Also to make matters worse me and a friend got stage 2 hypothermia and to make it even more worse we were in the middle of nowhere in a small village.

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#8 Scoop

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 01:53 PM

I hate the cold. :(

If anyone wants me I'll be under my double duvet dreaming of hot summer days!

#9 Scoop

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 02:29 PM

View PostIveToldYouOnce, on 29 January 2012 - 01:33 PM, said:

I went for a run this morning.

My, my, my.  It was cold.

Have they reappeared yet...? :blush:

#10 IveToldYouOnce

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 02:44 PM

View PostScoop, on 29 January 2012 - 02:29 PM, said:

Have they reappeared yet...? :blush:

They?  He asked innocently.


Yes.  They have.  Took a while though.  :o
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#11 Scoop

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 04:03 PM

View PostIveToldYouOnce, on 29 January 2012 - 02:44 PM, said:



They?  He asked innocently.


Yes.  They have.  Took a while though.  :o

I'm off out on a run later.

Unfortunately it's very evident when I'm cold... :blush2:

#12 Penbwlch

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 04:09 PM

View PostScoop, on 29 January 2012 - 04:03 PM, said:

I'm off out on a run later.

Unfortunately it's very evident when I'm cold... :blush2:

Excellent. I was looking for a new garden gnome. :D
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#13 Penbwlch

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 04:21 PM

Weather update. It has been snowing for most of the afternoon. The mountain is now white (when I can see it through the snow) although it has yet to lay at my level. However, the temperature is now down to 1.4C so should start laying soon.
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#14 croberon

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 04:55 PM

View PostScoop, on 29 January 2012 - 02:29 PM, said:

Have they reappeared yet...? :blush:
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#15 BIkerider

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 05:00 PM

Cold, wet and dreary up 'ere, in't froz north, but no snow as yet.
We actually had a sneak view of the sun around midday but that soon buggered off too!
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#16 Penbwlch

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 05:12 PM

You may have to wait a few days, BR, but I'm sure it will get round to you eventually, possibly by Tuesday.
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#17 Scoop

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 05:22 PM

View Postcroberon, on 29 January 2012 - 04:55 PM, said:


Bad Scoop!

Oooh thank you! :dance:

#18 exflic

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 05:38 PM

One of my sons lives in Aus, and every winter, they keep an eye on our weather and as as soon as the temperature dips below freezing here, my granddaughter bombards me with Emails showing their outside thermometer reading the mid 90's and her strutting along some beach in her bikini
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#19 BIkerider

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Posted 29 January 2012 - 10:37 PM

View PostPenbwlch, on 29 January 2012 - 05:12 PM, said:

You may have to wait a few days, BR, but I'm sure it will get round to you eventually, possibly by Tuesday.

I was speaking to a friend who lives just over the English border from you and they have had quite a nice day. Not baking hot, but warmer than could be expected. (probably read tomorrow that they are snow bound with 12" of the stuff
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#20 Penbwlch

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 06:11 AM

View PostBIkerider, on 29 January 2012 - 10:37 PM, said:

I was speaking to a friend who lives just over the English border from you and they have had quite a nice day. Not baking hot, but warmer than could be expected. (probably read tomorrow that they are snow bound with 12" of the stuff

The English border is a very long way from me. That sounds about right for him/her. They would have been included in what I said about central southern England. Tell them to prepare for some extreme (for that area) cold from mid-week.
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